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Santos W vs RB Bragantino W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:00

Santos W

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

RB Bragantino W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.9%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.2%1-110.6%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 42.9% 2.33 +17.0%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 25.3% 35.7% 2.80 -17.5%

Over 2.5 60.7% 51.8% 1.93 +17.2%

Over 3.5 37.3% 30.8% 3.25 +21.2%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos W1.8

RB Bragantino W1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS W · PPG 1.60

RB BRAGANTINO W · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Santos W (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +17.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

RB Bragantino W (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos W face RB Bragantino W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos W a 50% chance, the draw 25% and RB Bragantino W 25%, so Santos W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Santos W and 1.3 for RB Bragantino W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos W are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for RB Bragantino W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Santos W vs RB Bragantino W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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