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Gillingham vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Gillingham

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grimsby

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.2%0-27.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.1%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% 25.3% 3.95 +31.9%

Draw 26.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

Away win 40.3% 52.6% 1.90 -23.4%

Over 2.5 48.3% 50.0% 2.00 -3.4%

Over 3.5 26.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.9%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gillingham1.2

Grimsby1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.33

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Gillingham (H) 33.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +31.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.3%

Grimsby (A) 40.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gillingham face Grimsby in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gillingham a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Grimsby 40%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gillingham and 1.4 for Grimsby (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gillingham are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.9%. This match finished 1-4.

Gillingham vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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