Gillingham vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 44 Priestfield Stadium· Gillingham Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Gillingham PPG 1.33

1-4 MISS

Grimsby PPG 1.50

Home· +31.9% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gillingham face Grimsby in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gillingham a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Grimsby 40%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gillingham and 1.4 for Grimsby (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gillingham are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.9%. This match finished 1-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.4%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +31.9%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -9.3%

Away 40.3%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -23.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.3% Odds: 2.00 -3.4%

Over 3.5 26.5% Odds: 3.55 -5.9%

BTTS 52.9% Odds: 1.80 -4.8%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gillingham

1.23

Grimsby

1.38

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+31.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)