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Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 19:00

Arsenal

PPG 2.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Burnley

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 91.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.3%1-15.7%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.2%4+-111.0%4+-23.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 91.7% 1.09 -25.6%

Draw 22.5% 10.9% 9.20 +64.2%

Away win 9.2% 4.0% 25.00 +78.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 47.0% 54.6% 1.83 -14.0%

BTTS 51.6% 41.7% 2.40 +23.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal2.9

Burnley0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 2.44

BURNLEY · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -25.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +64.2%

Burnley (A) 9.2%

ODDS 25.00 · IMPLIED 4.0% EV +78.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face Burnley in England - Premier League on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Burnley 9%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Arsenal and 0.7 for Burnley (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.50 for Burnley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +78.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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