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England - Premier League Monday, May 18, 2026 19:00 
Arsenal PPG 2.44 
Burnley PPG 0.50
England - Premier League Monday, May 18, 2026 19:00 Arsenal PPG 2.441-0 MISS
Burnley PPG 0.50Away· +78.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.33 -15.0%
Over 3.5 47.0% Odds: 1.83 -14.0%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 2.40 +23.8%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-0 ✘
2nd 3-0 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 4-0 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal 2.85
Burnley 0.68
Model Suggestion
Home -25.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -25.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+78.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+78.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 57 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 44%
BTTS/No 60%
Score Hit 44%
ROI -9.4%
Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
STRONG_HOME 95%
Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus