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Fleetwood vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Fleetwood

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chesterfield

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.8%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.3%1-111.8%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.6%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 32.3% 3.10 +33.6%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.7%

Away win 31.8% 45.0% 2.22 -29.4%

Over 2.5 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Over 3.5 30.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

BTTS 56.2% 61.7% 1.62 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.2%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 1–0 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleetwood1.5

Chesterfield1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEETWOOD · PPG 1.48

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.48), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Fleetwood (H) 43.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +33.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.7%

Chesterfield (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleetwood face Chesterfield in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleetwood a 43% chance, the draw 25% and Chesterfield 32%, so Fleetwood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fleetwood and 1.3 for Chesterfield (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleetwood are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.62 for Chesterfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Fleetwood vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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