Today / England - League Two / Crewe Alexandra vs Milton Keynes

Crewe Alexandra vs Milton Keynes Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Crewe Alexandra

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Milton Keynes

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.3%0-26.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.0%1-111.7%1-28.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.8%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 27.4% 3.65 +32.5%

Draw 25.0% 28.2% 3.55 -11.3%

Away win 38.7% 51.5% 1.94 -24.9%

Over 2.5 54.5% 54.6% 1.83 -0.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 32.3% 3.10 -0.2%

BTTS 57.9% 59.9% 1.67 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.9%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 0–1 8.3%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crewe Alexandra1.4

Milton Keynes1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CREWE ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.90

MILTON KEYNES · PPG 1.76

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.90), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Crewe Alexandra (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +32.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.3%

Milton Keynes (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crewe Alexandra face Milton Keynes in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crewe Alexandra a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Milton Keynes 39%, so Milton Keynes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Crewe Alexandra and 1.5 for Milton Keynes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crewe Alexandra are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.76 for Milton Keynes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Crewe Alexandra vs Milton Keynes Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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