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Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Crawley Town

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Shrewsbury

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDL

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.2%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 52.6% 1.90 -2.3%

Draw 26.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.9%

Away win 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -8.6%

Over 2.5 42.3% 47.6% 2.10 -11.2%

Over 3.5 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -18.3%

BTTS 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0✓ 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crawley Town1.5

Shrewsbury0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CRAWLEY TOWN · PPG 1.10

SHREWSBURY · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.10) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Crawley Town (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -2.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.9%

Shrewsbury (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crawley Town face Shrewsbury in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crawley Town a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Shrewsbury 22%, so Crawley Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Crawley Town and 0.9 for Shrewsbury (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crawley Town are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.71 for Shrewsbury. This match finished 0-0.

Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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