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Colo-Colo vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 21:30

Colo-Colo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

6 – 2

FULL TIME

Nublense

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.9%0-113.7%0-24.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.8%1-23.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.8%2-15.0%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.5%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 59.9% 1.67 -38.4%

Draw 39.7% 29.0% 3.45 +37.0%

Away win 23.3% 20.0% 5.00 +9.9%

Over 2.5 25.8% 47.6% 2.10 -27.5%

Over 3.5 5.7% 27.0% 3.70 -47.3%

BTTS 41.8% 51.8% 1.93 -19.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 37% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.9%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo-Colo0.9

Nublense0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO-COLO · PPG 2.00

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Colo-Colo (H) 36.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -38.4%

Draw 39.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +37.0%

Nublense (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo-Colo face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo-Colo a 37% chance, the draw 40% and Nublense 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Colo-Colo and 0.6 for Nublense (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo-Colo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 6-2.

Colo-Colo vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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