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Cheltenham vs Newport Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Cheltenham

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

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1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Newport

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home 49% chance

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 44.2% — a clear edge.

+33.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.3%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.3%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-16.4%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 44.2% 2.26 +33.1%

Draw 21.8% 29.9% 3.35 -27.0%

Away win 19.3% 32.8% 3.05 -41.1%

Over 2.5 56.2% 47.6% 2.10 +18.0%

Over 3.5 33.9% 26.0% 3.85 +30.5%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 59% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–0✓ 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheltenham1.9

Newport1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELTENHAM · PPG 1.40

NEWPORT · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Cheltenham (H) 58.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +33.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -27.0%

Newport (A) 19.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheltenham face Newport in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheltenham a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Newport 19%, so Cheltenham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Cheltenham and 1.0 for Newport (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheltenham are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.86 for Newport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Cheltenham vs Newport Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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