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Cobresal vs U. de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Cobresal

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

U. de Chile

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-115.8%0-211.1%0-35.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.5%2-14.8%2-23.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.3%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Draw 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

Away win 46.5% 51.5% 1.94 -9.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 17.7% 29.9% 3.35 -24.4%

BTTS 48.6% 57.8% 1.73 -15.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.6%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 15.8%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobresal0.8

U. de Chile1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRESAL · PPG 1.20

U. DE CHILE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Cobresal (H) 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.1%

U. de Chile (A) 46.5%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobresal face U. de Chile in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobresal a 25% chance, the draw 29% and U. de Chile 47%, so U. de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Cobresal and 1.4 for U. de Chile (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobresal are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for U. de Chile. This match finished 1-0.

Cobresal vs U. de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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