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Stevenage vs Lincoln City Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Stevenage

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Lincoln City

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-114.0%0-27.6%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.0%2-16.5%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 35.5% 2.82 -10.6%

Draw 30.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.8%

Away win 37.9% 38.2% 2.62 -0.7%

Over 2.5 33.5% 41.7% 2.40 -19.6%

Over 3.5 15.1% 21.1% 4.75 -28.3%

BTTS 40.8% 51.3% 1.95 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob40.8%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stevenage1.0

Lincoln City1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STEVENAGE · PPG 2.10

LINCOLN CITY · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

41%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.10), Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Stevenage (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.8%

Lincoln City (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stevenage face Lincoln City in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stevenage a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Lincoln City 38%, so Lincoln City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Stevenage and 1.1 for Lincoln City (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stevenage are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.90 for Lincoln City. This match finished 2-2.

Stevenage vs Lincoln City Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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