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Paris FC vs Paris SG Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Paris FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paris SG

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-19.7%0-29.7%0-36.5%0-4+5.1%1 1-05.0%1-19.9%1-210.0%1-36.6%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.5%2-15.1%2-25.1%2-33.4%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 20.4% 4.90 +3.8%

Draw 23.9% 22.7% 4.40 +3.1%

Away win 54.4% 63.7% 1.57 -14.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 70.4% 1.42 -16.1%

Over 3.5 36.0% 50.0% 2.00 -28.0%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 54% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 10.0%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris FC1.0

Paris SG2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS FC · PPG 1.38

PARIS SG · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Paris FC (H) 21.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +3.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.1%

Paris SG (A) 54.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris FC face Paris SG in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris FC a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Paris SG 54%, so Paris SG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Paris FC and 2.0 for Paris SG (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.19 for Paris SG. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Paris FC vs Paris SG Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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