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Nice vs Metz Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Nice

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Metz

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.9%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.1%1-19.8%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.5%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.1%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 75.2% 1.33 -31.2%

Draw 24.0% 18.5% 5.40 +17.8%

Away win 24.3% 13.2% 7.60 +50.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 64.5% 1.55 -4.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 42.6% 2.35 -6.5%

BTTS 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nice2.0

Metz1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NICE · PPG 1.19

METZ · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.19) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Nice (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -31.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +17.8%

Metz (A) 24.3%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +50.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nice face Metz in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nice a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Metz 24%, so Nice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nice and 1.2 for Metz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nice are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.38 for Metz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Nice vs Metz Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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