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Nantes vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Nantes

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Toulouse

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.4%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.2%

Draw 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 43.6% 39.2% 2.55 +11.2%

Over 2.5 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Over 3.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantes1.1

Toulouse1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTES · PPG 0.75

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Nantes (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -16.2%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Toulouse (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantes face Toulouse in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantes a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Toulouse 44%, so Toulouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nantes and 1.5 for Toulouse (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantes are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Toulouse. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.2%.

Nantes vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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