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Marseille vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Marseille

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rennes

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.2%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.0%1-18.7%1-26.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.4%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.4%4+-24.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 50.0% 2.00 +3.0%

Draw 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Away win 24.6% 30.3% 3.30 -11.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 64.5% 1.55 -0.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% 42.6% 2.35 +11.6%

BTTS 61.5% 67.6% 1.48 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marseille2.1

Rennes1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MARSEILLE · PPG 2.13

RENNES · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Marseille (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +3.0%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Rennes (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marseille face Rennes in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marseille a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Rennes 25%, so Marseille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Marseille and 1.5 for Rennes (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marseille are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.56 for Rennes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Marseille vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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