Marseille vs Rennes Prediction & Tips

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France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 34 Orange Vélodrome· Marseille Sunday, May 17, 2026 19:00

Marseille PPG 2.13

3-1 HIT CS5

Rennes PPG 1.56

Over3.5· +11.6% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.5%

Odds: 2.00 EV: +3.0%

Draw 23.9%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -6.9%

Away 24.6%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -11.3%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.55 -0.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% Odds: 2.35 +11.6%

BTTS 61.5% Odds: 1.48 -9.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 3-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille

2.09

Rennes

1.46

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -0.9% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.9%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.56)