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Lyon vs Lens Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Lyon

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lens

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.2%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.0%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.4%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 58.1% 1.72 -23.6%

Draw 25.7% 24.4% 4.10 +3.2%

Away win 29.8% 24.4% 4.10 +13.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyon1.5

Lens1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LYON · PPG 2.31

LENS · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.31) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Lyon (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -23.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.2%

Lens (A) 29.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon face Lens in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Lens 30%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lyon and 1.3 for Lens (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.56 for Lens. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Lyon vs Lens Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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