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Lorient vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Lorient

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Le Havre

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.0%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.6%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.3%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 38.8% 2.58 +31.3%

Draw 25.1% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Away win 24.0% 38.8% 2.58 -22.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Over 3.5 25.9% 30.8% 3.25 -9.5%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lorient1.7

Le Havre0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LORIENT · PPG 1.88

LE HAVRE · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Lorient (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +31.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

Le Havre (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lorient face Le Havre in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lorient a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Le Havre 24%, so Lorient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lorient and 0.9 for Le Havre (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lorient are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.56 for Le Havre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Lorient vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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