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Lille vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Lille

PPG 1.81 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Auxerre

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.8%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.3%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 71.4% 1.40 -26.6%

Draw 25.8% 21.7% 4.60 +11.2%

Away win 21.8% 13.9% 7.20 +34.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 22.5% 37.0% 2.70 -23.5%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lille1.7

Auxerre0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLE · PPG 1.81

AUXERRE · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Lille (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +11.2%

Auxerre (A) 21.8%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lille face Auxerre in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lille a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Auxerre 22%, so Lille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lille and 0.8 for Auxerre (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lille are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.56 for Auxerre. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Lille vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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