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France - Ligue 1 logo France flag France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 34 Stade Pierre-Mauroy· Lille Sunday, May 17, 2026 19:00
Lille logo Lille PPG 1.81
0-2 MISS
Auxerre logo Auxerre PPG 0.56
Away· +34.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.4%
Odds: 1.40 EV: -26.6%
Draw 25.8%
Odds: 4.60 EV: +11.2%
Away 21.8%
Odds: 7.20 EV: +34.2%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 1.67 -20.5%
Over 3.5 22.5% Odds: 2.70 -23.5%
BTTS 49.2% Odds: 1.85 -9.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 0-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Lille
1.65
Auxerre
0.77

Model Suggestion

Home -26.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -26.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+34.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=52.4%

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