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Northampton vs Doncaster Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Northampton

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Doncaster

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.4%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.8%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-18.7%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 20.8% 4.80 +129.0%

Draw 27.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.3%

Away win 24.6% 59.9% 1.67 -58.9%

Over 2.5 39.3% 54.1% 1.85 -27.3%

Over 3.5 19.2% 32.3% 3.10 -40.5%

BTTS 44.0% 56.5% 1.77 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northampton1.4

Doncaster0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHAMPTON · PPG 1.10

DONCASTER · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.10), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Northampton (H) 47.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +129.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.3%

Doncaster (A) 24.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -58.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northampton face Doncaster in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northampton a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Doncaster 25%, so Northampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Northampton and 0.9 for Doncaster (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northampton are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Doncaster. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +129.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Northampton vs Doncaster Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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