Today / England - League One / Leyton Orient vs Rotherham

Leyton Orient vs Rotherham Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Leyton Orient

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rotherham

PPG 0.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+16.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-18.6%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.0%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-16.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 60.6% 1.65 +16.5%

Draw 18.1% 27.0% 3.70 -33.0%

Away win 11.3% 19.2% 5.20 -41.2%

Over 2.5 57.1% 51.8% 1.93 +10.2%

Over 3.5 34.7% 30.3% 3.30 +14.5%

BTTS 47.4% 54.6% 1.83 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.4%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leyton Orient2.2

Rotherham0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEYTON ORIENT · PPG 1.43

ROTHERHAM · PPG 0.52

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

64%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.43), Away POOR (0.52) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leyton Orient (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +16.5%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -33.0%

Rotherham (A) 11.3%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -41.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leyton Orient face Rotherham in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leyton Orient a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Rotherham 11%, so Leyton Orient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Leyton Orient and 0.8 for Rotherham (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leyton Orient are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.52 for Rotherham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Leyton Orient vs Rotherham Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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