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Huachipato vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:30

Huachipato

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Union La Calera

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+21.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.7%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.7%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.6%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 47.6% 2.10 +11.7%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -17.6%

Over 2.5 60.8% 50.0% 2.00 +21.6%

Over 3.5 37.4% 29.0% 3.45 +29.0%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huachipato2.1

Union La Calera1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HUACHIPATO · PPG 2.40

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Huachipato (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +11.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

Union La Calera (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huachipato face Union La Calera in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huachipato a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Union La Calera 22%, so Huachipato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Huachipato and 1.0 for Union La Calera (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huachipato are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Union La Calera. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Huachipato vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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