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Newcastle Utd vs West Ham Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:30

Newcastle Utd

PPG 1.61 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

West Ham Utd

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.7%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.5%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.1%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 46.3% 2.16 +11.7%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 24.3% 34.0% 2.94 -17.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 65.4% 1.53 -9.6%

Over 3.5 35.5% 42.6% 2.35 -16.6%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle Utd1.9

West Ham Utd1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE UTD · PPG 1.61

WEST HAM UTD · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle Utd (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +11.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

West Ham Utd (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle Utd face West Ham Utd in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle Utd a 52% chance, the draw 24% and West Ham Utd 24%, so Newcastle Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Newcastle Utd and 1.2 for West Ham Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle Utd are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.94 for West Ham Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Newcastle Utd vs West Ham Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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