Exeter City vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 44 St James Park· Exeter Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Exeter City PPG 1.43

3-3 MISS

Stockport PPG 1.43

Home· +52.3% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Exeter City face Stockport in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Exeter City a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Stockport 31%, so Exeter City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Exeter City and 1.2 for Stockport (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Exeter City are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.43 for Stockport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.9%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +52.3%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -2.7%

Away 30.8%

Odds: 1.93 EV: -40.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: 2.70 -30.1%

BTTS 52.0% Odds: 1.57 -18.4%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Exeter City

1.42

Stockport

1.16

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+52.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.43)