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Exeter City vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Exeter City

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stockport

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.8%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.8%1-112.5%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 28.2% 3.55 +52.3%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -2.7%

Away win 30.8% 51.8% 1.93 -40.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% 37.0% 2.70 -30.1%

BTTS 52.0% 63.7% 1.57 -18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.0%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Exeter City1.4

Stockport1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EXETER CITY · PPG 1.43

STOCKPORT · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Exeter City (H) 42.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +52.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.7%

Stockport (A) 30.8%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Exeter City face Stockport in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Exeter City a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Stockport 31%, so Exeter City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Exeter City and 1.2 for Stockport (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Exeter City are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.43 for Stockport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Exeter City vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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