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AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Plymouth

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.9%0-25.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.4%1-110.9%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 26.3% 3.80 +54.3%

Draw 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 35.5% 54.3% 1.84 -34.7%

Over 2.5 59.2% 58.8% 1.70 +0.6%

Over 3.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 7.4%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Wimbledon1.6

Plymouth1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 1.33

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Wimbledon (H) 40.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +54.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Plymouth (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -34.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Wimbledon face Plymouth in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Wimbledon a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Plymouth 36%, so AFC Wimbledon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.5 for Plymouth (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Plymouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +54.3%. This match finished 1-3.

AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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