AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 44 The Cherry Red Records Stadium· London Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

AFC Wimbledon PPG 1.33

1-3 MISS

Plymouth PPG 1.60

Home· +54.3% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Wimbledon face Plymouth in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Wimbledon a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Plymouth 36%, so AFC Wimbledon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.5 for Plymouth (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Plymouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +54.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.6%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +54.3%

Draw 23.9%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -9.2%

Away 35.5%

Odds: 1.84 EV: -34.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.2% Odds: 1.70 +0.6%

Over 3.5 36.8% Odds: 2.80 +3.0%

BTTS 61.5% Odds: 1.62 -0.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AFC Wimbledon

1.59

Plymouth

1.48

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.4% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.4%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.60)