Leeds Utd vs Brighton Prediction & Tips

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England - Premier League Regular Season - 37 Elland Road· Leeds Sunday, May 17, 2026 14:00

Leeds Utd PPG 1.61

1-0 HIT CS5

Brighton PPG 1.11

Home· +18.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.5%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +18.6%

Draw 27.3%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -1.8%

Away 36.2%

Odds: 2.08 EV: -24.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.67 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.7% Odds: 2.65 -17.5%

BTTS 52.7% Odds: 1.55 -18.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Leeds Utd

1.33

Brighton

1.28

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+18.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)