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Leeds Utd vs Brighton Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Leeds Utd

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Brighton

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.4%0-26.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.8%1-112.5%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-18.3%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 30.8% 3.25 +18.6%

Draw 27.3% 28.2% 3.55 -1.8%

Away win 36.2% 48.1% 2.08 -24.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.7% 37.7% 2.65 -17.5%

BTTS 52.7% 64.5% 1.55 -18.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0✓ 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leeds Utd1.3

Brighton1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEDS UTD · PPG 1.61

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Leeds Utd (H) 36.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +18.6%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.8%

Brighton (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leeds Utd face Brighton in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leeds Utd a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Brighton 36%, so Leeds Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leeds Utd and 1.3 for Brighton (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leeds Utd are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.11 for Brighton. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Leeds Utd vs Brighton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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