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Everton vs Sunderland Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Everton

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sunderland

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.5%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-112.8%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.7%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 55.2% 1.81 -13.1%

Draw 27.4% 27.0% 3.70 +0.8%

Away win 24.6% 24.4% 4.10 +0.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.6% 1.83 -15.4%

Over 3.5 19.8% 33.3% 3.00 -24.4%

BTTS 51.5% 57.8% 1.73 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.5%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.4

Sunderland0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.28

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -13.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.8%

Sunderland (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Sunderland in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sunderland 25%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Everton and 0.9 for Sunderland (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.00 for Sunderland. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Everton vs Sunderland Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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