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Brentford vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Brentford

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.0%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.2%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 61.0% 1.64 -18.8%

Draw 26.2% 25.3% 3.95 +2.1%

Away win 24.3% 20.8% 4.80 +10.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 60.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Over 3.5 24.7% 38.5% 2.60 -21.5%

BTTS 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brentford1.5

Crystal Palace1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.72

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Brentford (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -18.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.1%

Crystal Palace (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brentford face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brentford a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Crystal Palace 24%, so Brentford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brentford and 1.0 for Crystal Palace (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brentford are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.28 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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