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Siegburger vs Pesch Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 27 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Siegburger

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pesch

PPG 0.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.5%1-10.4%1-20.2%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-01.7%2-11.4%2-20.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.5%3-12.9%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-038.5%4+-131.3%4+-212.7%4+-33.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 88.9% — — —

Draw 6.5% — — —

Away win 4.6% — — —

Over 2.5 79.6% — — —

Over 3.5 92.0% — — —

BTTS 53.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)6.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.8%

H 89% / xG 6.2-0.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 6.8%

#2 5–1 5.6%

#3 4–0 5.5%

#4 4–1 4.5%

#5 3–0 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siegburger6.2

Pesch0.8

COMBINED 7.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 92.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SIEGBURGER · PPG 1.62

PESCH · PPG 0.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.62), Away POOR (0.15) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Siegburger (H) 88.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 6.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pesch (A) 4.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Siegburger face Pesch in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siegburger a 89% chance, the draw 7% and Pesch 5%, so Siegburger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 6.2 for Siegburger and 0.8 for Pesch (7.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siegburger are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.15 for Pesch.

Siegburger vs Pesch Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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