Today / England - Premier League / Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Newcastle Utd

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bournemouth

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.2%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.0%1-18.7%1-26.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.4%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 50.8% 1.97 +3.2%

Draw 21.0% 26.7% 3.75 -21.3%

Away win 26.5% 29.4% 3.40 -9.9%

Over 2.5 68.9% 67.6% 1.48 +2.0%

Over 3.5 47.5% 46.5% 2.15 +2.1%

BTTS 67.3% 70.4% 1.42 -4.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob67.3%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle Utd2.1

Bournemouth1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE UTD · PPG 1.63

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle Utd (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +3.2%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -21.3%

Bournemouth (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle Utd face Bournemouth in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle Utd a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Bournemouth 27%, so Newcastle Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Newcastle Utd and 1.5 for Bournemouth (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle Utd are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.19 for Bournemouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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