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Bornheim vs Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 27 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Bornheim

PPG 1.54 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Duren

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.5%0-22.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.6%1-16.3%1-25.5%1-33.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.8%3-16.5%3-25.7%3-33.3%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-17.4%4+-26.4%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 66.1% — — —

Over 3.5 61.0% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bornheim2.5

Duren1.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 61.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BORNHEIM · PPG 1.54

DUREN · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.54) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Bornheim (H) 52.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Duren (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bornheim face Duren in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bornheim a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Duren 25%, so Bornheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Bornheim and 1.7 for Duren (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bornheim are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.08 for Duren. This match finished 4-2.

Bornheim vs Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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