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Leeds Utd vs Wolverhampton Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Leeds Utd

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wolverhampton

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDD

// Model verdict

Home 65% chance

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-14.6%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-19.2%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.3%3-16.2%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-14.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 63.7% 1.57 +8.3%

Draw 19.8% 26.7% 3.75 -25.8%

Away win 11.3% 16.7% 6.00 -32.2%

Over 2.5 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

BTTS 41.8% 52.6% 1.90 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

H 69% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 3–0✓ 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leeds Utd2.0

Wolverhampton0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEDS UTD · PPG 1.44

WOLVERHAMPTON · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

65%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.44), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leeds Utd (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +8.3%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -25.8%

Wolverhampton (A) 11.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leeds Utd face Wolverhampton in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leeds Utd a 69% chance, the draw 20% and Wolverhampton 11%, so Leeds Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Leeds Utd and 0.7 for Wolverhampton (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leeds Utd are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.31 for Wolverhampton. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Leeds Utd vs Wolverhampton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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