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Stenungsund vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Stenungsund

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Motala

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.7%0-25.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 37.0% 2.70 -0.4%

Draw 26.0% 28.6% 3.50 -5.4%

Away win 37.1% 44.4% 2.25 -16.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Over 3.5 33.4% 41.7% 2.40 -19.8%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stenungsund1.5

Motala1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STENUNGSUND · PPG 2.33

MOTALA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=36.9%

Win probability 1X2

Stenungsund (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.4%

Motala (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenungsund face Motala in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenungsund a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Motala 37%, so Motala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stenungsund and 1.4 for Motala (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenungsund are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Motala. This match finished 1-1.

Stenungsund vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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