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SF Duren vs E. Hohkeppel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 27 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

SF Duren

PPG 0.77 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

E. Hohkeppel

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.3%0-22.8%0-34.0%0-4+13.6%1 1-00.5%1-12.0%1-24.2%1-36.0%1-4+20.6%2 2-00.4%2-11.5%2-23.2%2-34.6%2-4+15.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.8%3-21.6%3-32.3%3-4+7.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 65.6% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 82.9% — — —

BTTS 64.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)4.3 BTTS prob64.0%

A 66% / xG 1.5-4.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 6.4%

#2 1–3✓ 6.0%

#3 1–5 5.5%

#4 2–4 4.9%

#5 2–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SF Duren1.5

E. Hohkeppel4.3

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 82.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SF DUREN · PPG 0.77

E. HOHKEPPEL · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.42) vs Home POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

SF Duren (H) 14.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

E. Hohkeppel (A) 65.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SF Duren face E. Hohkeppel in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SF Duren a 14% chance, the draw 20% and E. Hohkeppel 66%, so E. Hohkeppel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SF Duren and 4.3 for E. Hohkeppel (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SF Duren are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.42 for E. Hohkeppel. This match finished 1-3.

SF Duren vs E. Hohkeppel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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