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Porz vs Hennef Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 27 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Porz

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hennef

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.2%0-21.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-01.7%1-13.6%1-23.9%1-32.8%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.5%2-25.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-19.0%4+-29.8%4+-37.0%4+-4+6.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 76.3% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 3.0-2.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 2–2 5.9%

#3 3–1 5.6%

#4 2–1 5.5%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Porz3.0

Hennef2.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 76.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORZ · PPG 1.00

HENNEF · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Porz (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hennef (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Porz face Hennef in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Porz a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Hennef 26%, so Porz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Porz and 2.2 for Hennef (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Porz are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.69 for Hennef. This match finished 1-5.

Porz vs Hennef Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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