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Bergisch G. vs Frechen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 27 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Bergisch G.

PPG 2.25 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Frechen

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.3%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.9%1-16.3%1-24.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.7%2-18.6%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-110.5%4+-26.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 57.1% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bergisch G.2.7

Frechen1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGISCH G. · PPG 2.25

FRECHEN · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Bergisch G. (H) 59.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Frechen (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bergisch G. face Frechen in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bergisch G. a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Frechen 20%, so Bergisch G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Bergisch G. and 1.3 for Frechen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bergisch G. are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.69 for Frechen. This match finished 4-1.

Bergisch G. vs Frechen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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