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TuBa Pohlheim vs Friedberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

TuBa Pohlheim

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Friedberg

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.2%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.7%1-15.9%1-24.7%1-32.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.4%3-17.1%3-25.7%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-19.2%4+-27.4%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 24.8% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 62.2% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.6 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 3–1 7.1%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TuBa Pohlheim2.7

Friedberg1.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TUBA POHLHEIM · PPG 1.75

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

TuBa Pohlheim (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Friedberg (A) 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TuBa Pohlheim face Friedberg in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TuBa Pohlheim a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Friedberg 25%, so TuBa Pohlheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for TuBa Pohlheim and 1.6 for Friedberg (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TuBa Pohlheim are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.21 for Friedberg. This match finished 0-3.

TuBa Pohlheim vs Friedberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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