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Siauliai vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Siauliai

PPG 0.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Panevezys

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-116.0%0-27.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.0%2-15.5%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 35.1% 2.85 -12.5%

Draw 33.3% 30.8% 3.25 +8.2%

Away win 36.0% 44.4% 2.25 -19.0%

Over 2.5 25.9% 51.3% 1.95 -49.5%

Over 3.5 10.2% 29.0% 3.45 -64.8%

BTTS 34.1% 57.8% 1.73 -41.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob34.1%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 0–1 16.0%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 1–1 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siauliai0.8

Panevezys0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.9% · O3.5 PROB 10.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.33

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Siauliai (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.5%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +8.2%

Panevezys (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siauliai face Panevezys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siauliai a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Panevezys 36%, so Panevezys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Siauliai and 0.9 for Panevezys (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siauliai are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Panevezys. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Siauliai vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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