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Fittja IF vs Eker Orebro Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Fittja IF

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eker Orebro

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.0%1-14.0%1-22.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.2%2-16.8%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-115.6%4+-210.2%4+-34.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 55.6% 1.80 +11.4%

Draw 20.3% 25.3% 3.95 -11.9%

Away win 17.8% 29.0% 3.45 -23.2%

Over 2.5 73.3% 74.1% 1.35 -1.0%

Over 3.5 69.3% 54.1% 1.85 +28.2%

BTTS 62.7% 75.2% 1.33 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.7%

H 62% / xG 3.4-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 3–0 5.9%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fittja IF3.4

Eker Orebro1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FITTJA IF · PPG 1.75

EKER OREBRO · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

Fittja IF (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +11.4%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.9%

Eker Orebro (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fittja IF face Eker Orebro in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fittja IF a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Eker Orebro 18%, so Fittja IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Fittja IF and 1.3 for Eker Orebro (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fittja IF are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Eker Orebro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Fittja IF vs Eker Orebro Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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