Fittja IF vs Eker Orebro Prediction & Tips

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Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Södra Svealand - 8 Sunday, May 17, 2026 12:00

Fittja IF PPG 1.75

3-2 MISS

Eker Orebro PPG 0.33

Over3.5· +28.2% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.9%

Odds: 1.80 EV: +11.4%

Draw 20.3%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -11.9%

Away 17.8%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -23.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.3% Odds: 1.35 -1.0%

Over 3.5 69.3% Odds: 1.85 +28.2%

BTTS 62.7% Odds: 1.33 -16.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 4-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Fittja IF

3.40

Eker Orebro

1.31

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -1.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-1.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=61.9%