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England - Premier League Sunday, May 17, 2026 11:30 
Manchester Utd PPG 2.17 
Nottm Forest PPG 1.33
England - Premier League Sunday, May 17, 2026 11:30 Manchester Utd PPG 2.173-2 MISS
Nottm Forest PPG 1.33Away· +12.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.57 -7.2%
Over 3.5 33.3% Odds: 2.40 -20.1%
BTTS 56.3% Odds: 1.62 -8.8%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester Utd 1.76
Nottm Forest 1.16
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -7.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -7.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+12.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+12.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=51.1%