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Manchester Utd vs Nottm Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:30

Manchester Utd

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nottm Forest

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.5%1-111.0%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 62.9% 1.59 -18.8%

Draw 24.9% 24.4% 4.10 +1.3%

Away win 24.0% 20.0% 5.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Over 3.5 33.3% 41.7% 2.40 -20.1%

BTTS 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.3%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester Utd1.8

Nottm Forest1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER UTD · PPG 2.17

NOTTM FOREST · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=51.1%

Win probability 1X2

Manchester Utd (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -18.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.3%

Nottm Forest (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester Utd face Nottm Forest in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester Utd a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Nottm Forest 24%, so Manchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Manchester Utd and 1.2 for Nottm Forest (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester Utd are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Nottm Forest. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Manchester Utd vs Nottm Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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