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TransINVEST vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:15

TransINVEST

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zalgiris

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.3%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 40.0% 2.50 +13.3%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 26.5% 40.0% 2.50 -20.3%

Over 2.5 46.4% 55.6% 1.80 -16.5%

Over 3.5 20.0% 36.4% 2.75 -27.0%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0✓ 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST1.3

Zalgiris1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST · PPG 1.50

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +13.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Zalgiris (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST face Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Zalgiris 27%, so TransINVEST are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for TransINVEST and 1.0 for Zalgiris (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 1-0.

TransINVEST vs Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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