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Newcastle O. vs Weston Bears Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:30

Newcastle O.

PPG 0.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Weston Bears

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.2%0-25.4%0-34.7%0-4+5.7%1 1-02.5%1-16.4%1-28.3%1-37.2%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.9%2-14.9%2-26.4%2-35.5%2-4+6.7%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.3%3-32.8%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.4%4+-21.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 46.3% 2.16 -31.0%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 55.7% 34.0% 2.94 +63.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 59.2% 42.6% 2.35 +39.1%

BTTS 63.0% 67.6% 1.48 -6.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.0%

A 56% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 1–3 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle O.1.5

Weston Bears2.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 0.40

WESTON BEARS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle O. (H) 22.4%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -31.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Weston Bears (A) 55.7%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +63.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle O. face Weston Bears in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle O. a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Weston Bears 56%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Newcastle O. and 2.6 for Weston Bears (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle O. are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 3.00 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Newcastle O. vs Weston Bears Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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