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N. Carolina W vs Chicago RS W Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 22:00

N. Carolina W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chicago RS W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+30.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.3%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-19.6%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-15.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-13.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 45.5% 2.20 +30.7%

Draw 23.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.4%

Away win 17.1% 36.4% 2.75 -31.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 66.7% 1.50 -28.6%

Over 3.5 22.2% 44.8% 2.23 -30.3%

BTTS 48.6% 71.4% 1.40 -32.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 2–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

N. Carolina W1.8

Chicago RS W0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

N. CAROLINA W · PPG 1.00

CHICAGO RS W · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

N. Carolina W (H) 59.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +30.7%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.4%

Chicago RS W (A) 17.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

N. Carolina W face Chicago RS W in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives N. Carolina W a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Chicago RS W 17%, so N. Carolina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for N. Carolina W and 0.6 for Chicago RS W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, N. Carolina W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Chicago RS W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.7%. This match finished 2-1.

N. Carolina W vs Chicago RS W Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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