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OHiggins vs U. Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:30

OHiggins

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

U. Concepcion

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.2%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-110.0%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.2%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 54.9% 1.82 -1.9%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 21.3% 25.6% 3.90 -10.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OHiggins1.9

U. Concepcion0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OHIGGINS · PPG 2.00

U. CONCEPCION · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

OHiggins (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -1.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

U. Concepcion (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

OHiggins face U. Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OHiggins a 54% chance, the draw 25% and U. Concepcion 21%, so OHiggins are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for OHiggins and 0.8 for U. Concepcion (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OHiggins are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.40 for U. Concepcion. This match finished 0-1.

OHiggins vs U. Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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