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Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:15

Radomiak Radom

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.0%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.7%1-111.8%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 28.2% 3.55 +40.6%

Draw 25.7% 26.0% 3.85 -0.6%

Away win 34.7% 52.6% 1.90 -34.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 31.4% 41.7% 2.40 -24.6%

BTTS 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.5%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomiak Radom1.5

Lech Poznan1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 1.94

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Radomiak Radom (H) 39.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +40.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.6%

Lech Poznan (A) 34.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Lech Poznan in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Lech Poznan 35%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Radomiak Radom and 1.4 for Lech Poznan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.81 for Lech Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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