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RFS B vs Leevon PPK Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:00

RFS B

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Leevon PPK

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-17.1%0-211.0%0-311.4%0-4+19.0%1 1-01.6%1-14.8%1-27.5%1-37.7%1-4+12.9%2 2-00.5%2-11.6%2-22.5%2-32.6%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.7% 25.0% 4.00 -36.7%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 68.9% 62.5% 1.60 +10.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 52.0% 43.9% 2.28 +18.6%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob51.6%

A 69% / xG 0.7-3.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 11.4%

#2 0–2 11.0%

#3 0–4 8.8%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 1–2✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS B0.7

Leevon PPK3.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS B · PPG 0.25

LEEVON PPK · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

RFS B (H) 9.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -36.7%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

Leevon PPK (A) 68.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS B face Leevon PPK in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS B a 10% chance, the draw 21% and Leevon PPK 69%, so Leevon PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for RFS B and 3.1 for Leevon PPK (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS B are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 2.50 for Leevon PPK. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 1-2.

RFS B vs Leevon PPK Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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