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Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Gori

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-114.3%0-24.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.2%2-15.5%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% — — —

Draw 38.6% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 7.1% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 37% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.4%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1✓ 14.3%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gori0.9

Aragvi Dusheti0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GORI · PPG 1.50

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=36.6%

Win probability 1X2

Gori (H) 36.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 38.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aragvi Dusheti (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gori face Aragvi Dusheti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gori a 37% chance, the draw 39% and Aragvi Dusheti 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gori and 0.7 for Aragvi Dusheti (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gori are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Aragvi Dusheti. This match finished 0-1.

Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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