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Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:30

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.6%0-26.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.1%2-16.7%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.4%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 29.4% 3.40 +22.4%

Draw 33.8% 29.0% 3.45 +16.6%

Away win 30.1% 48.1% 2.08 -37.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 13.3% 28.2% 3.55 -31.7%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

D 34% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1✓ 13.6%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Plock1.0

Gornik Zabrze0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.69

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Plock (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +22.4%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +16.6%

Gornik Zabrze (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Plock face Gornik Zabrze in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Plock a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Gornik Zabrze 30%, so Wisla Plock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Wisla Plock and 0.9 for Gornik Zabrze (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Plock are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.19 for Gornik Zabrze. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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