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Dziugas Telsiai vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:30

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Banga

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-114.9%0-27.7%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.9%2-16.1%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

Draw 32.7% 34.5% 2.90 -5.2%

Away win 35.7% 36.4% 2.75 -1.8%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 13.2% 26.7% 3.75 -30.3%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1✓ 14.9%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai0.9

Banga1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.80

BANGA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.0%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -5.2%

Banga (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Banga 36%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Dziugas Telsiai and 1.0 for Banga (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Banga. This match finished 0-1.

Dziugas Telsiai vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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