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Sportlust vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Sportlust

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sparta Nijkerk

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.9%0-24.8%0-33.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-04.2%1-18.4%1-28.3%1-35.5%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.1%3-14.2%3-24.1%3-32.7%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 41.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 50.7% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 41% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportlust1.7

Sparta Nijkerk2.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTLUST · PPG 1.69

SPARTA NIJKERK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sportlust (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sparta Nijkerk (A) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportlust face Sparta Nijkerk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportlust a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Sparta Nijkerk 41%, so Sparta Nijkerk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sportlust and 2.0 for Sparta Nijkerk (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportlust are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.50 for Sparta Nijkerk. This match finished 0-2.

Sportlust vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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