Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday / Raalte vs TEC

Raalte vs TEC Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Raalte

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TEC

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.4%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.7%1-16.5%1-23.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.7%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-110.7%4+-26.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 19.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 54.3% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raalte2.7

TEC1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RAALTE · PPG 2.40

TEC · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=60.0%

Win probability 1X2

Raalte (H) 60.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TEC (A) 19.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Raalte face TEC in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raalte a 60% chance, the draw 21% and TEC 19%, so Raalte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Raalte and 1.1 for TEC (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raalte are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.38 for TEC. This match finished 0-1.

Raalte vs TEC Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday Predictions