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Huizen vs Hoogeveen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Huizen

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hoogeveen

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.4%0-23.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-03.9%1-17.3%1-26.8%1-34.3%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.1%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.9%3-15.5%3-25.1%3-33.2%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.8%4+-24.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 34.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 56.6% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

H 44% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huizen2.1

Hoogeveen1.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HUIZEN · PPG 1.44

HOOGEVEEN · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Huizen (H) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hoogeveen (A) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Huizen face Hoogeveen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huizen a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Hoogeveen 34%, so Huizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Huizen and 1.9 for Hoogeveen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huizen are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.19 for Hoogeveen. This match finished 1-0.

Huizen vs Hoogeveen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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